Relli: India's market shifts to stock‑picking
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- Relli said elevated oil prices are creating a cascading impact across inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings worldwide.
- Relli noted that easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia could bring relief through improved supply chains and softer oil prices.
- RBI’s policy stance reflects a calibrated approach, with GDP growth expectations only modestly moderated to around 6.9% while real growth remains near 7% and nominal growth 10‑11%.
- Relli projected FY27 earnings growth to moderate to 10‑12% from earlier 14‑15% due to high crude prices, yet still double‑digit and broader‑based across sectors.
- Relli highlighted that valuations have improved, with mid‑ and small‑cap stocks returning toward long‑term averages, limiting downside risk and creating upside potential.
- Relli warned that a normal or above‑average monsoon would boost rural demand, while a shortfall could weigh on consumption and growth.
- Relli said the market is shifting to bottom‑up investing, with stock‑picking dominating the next phase and HDFC Securities identifying multiple opportunities among over 270 companies.
Why it matters: Investors benefit from tighter valuations and a more favorable risk‑reward profile as Indian equities move toward stock‑specific opportunities, while companies and consumers remain vulnerable to sustained oil prices above $100 and a weak monsoon, which could curb earnings and demand.
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