Ranking the NFL rookie running backs best positioned for instant production
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- Jeremiyah Love tops the rankings at 1,025 projected rushing yards and 232 fantasy points, with Arizona taking him at No. 3 overall — a pick that drew significant criticism for using a premium selection on a running back.
- Jadarian Price slots in at No. 2 with 228 projected carries for 977 yards and 187 fantasy points, as Seattle's backfield opens up after Zach Charbonnet's late-season injury and Kenneth Walker III's free-agent departure to the Chiefs.
- Kaelon Black is the 49ers' RB3 behind Christian McCaffrey, projected for 152 carries, 592 yards, and 114.9 fantasy points — San Francisco previously saw Day 2 picks Ty Davis-Price and Trey Sermon combine for just 81 career carries in the Bay Area.
- Mike Washington Jr. profiles as the thunder to Ashton Jeanty's lightning in Las Vegas, projected for 97 carries, 340 yards, and 89 fantasy points; Jeanty handled all but 41 of the Raiders' RB carries as a rookie.
- Jonah Coleman rounds out the top five at 134 projected yards and 25.4 fantasy points, with a path to Denver carries given J.K. Dobbins' chronic injury history; Coleman was drafted 108th overall.
- CBS Sports projects only three rookies to cross 100 carries this season, down from nine last year, while the league has averaged 15 1,000-yard rushers over the past four seasons — up from 10 per year between 2016 and 2021.
- The author's own historical data cuts against Love's projection: the six RBs taken in the top 10 over the last 10 years averaged just 636.4 rushing yards and 4.6 touchdowns as rookies.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters face a thin rookie RB class — CBS projects just three rookies to log 100-plus carries, down from nine a year ago. Love's headline 1,025-yard projection nearly doubles the 636-yard rookie average for top-10 RB picks over the past decade, meaning anyone drafting him is betting heavily against historical norms.
