Xanadu stock faces test as lockup set to lift for most investors — SkimNews
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- Xanadu Quantum Technologies will see its lockup expire Sept. 22, six months after going public via SPAC merger, freeing early shareholders (angel investors, VCs, pension funds, banks) to sell — only 13 million of 300 million shares have been freely tradeable to date.
- The stock quadrupled in early weeks then continued falling, closing Friday at US$7.42, and moved 10% or more on 13 of its first 26 trading days due to the tiny float, per CEO Christian Weedbrook.
- Weedbrook said he's "really excited" about the lockup lifting, arguing more available shares will attract large institutions and dampen "crazy" price swings, though he declined to predict where the stock trades on the 22nd.
- CIBC Capital Markets analyst Todd Coupland carries a US$22 price target and advised investors in a Sept. 1 note to "use weakness around the Sept. 22 lockup" to buy, citing upcoming "technical de-risking" milestones.
- OMERS' Xanadu stake peaked at US$1.6 billion (built from under US$30 million invested) and was still worth US$299 million Friday — exceeding the pension fund's June 30 holdings in three Canadian banks and running six times its Shopify stake.
- Xanadu and two other Canadian firms will learn this fall whether they advance to the final stage of a DARPA competition to build a commercial-grade quantum computer by 2033, with potential US$300 million each in U.S. funding.
- The Canadian government has committed US$195 million in repayable funding to Xanadu for an advanced manufacturing facility in Toronto and has pledged to match DARPA funds received by Canadian participants.
Why it matters: OMERS faces a textbook temptation: lock in a US$299M gain on a US$30M investment in a pre-commercial company — a position type the pension fund typically holds only in established giants, per the source. The Sept. 22 unlock could double Xanadu's free float overnight, and with no commercial machine yet viable in the quantum sector, the size of selling pressure will determine whether CIBC's US$22 target looks prescient or premature.
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