Caruso-Cabrera: The investing tailwinds for Latin America are the best in decades — SkimNews
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- The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) is up 15% year-to-date in 2026, beating the S&P 500's 11% return and surging more than 70% since late 2024.
- Citi Chief Latin America Economist Ernesto Revilla said conditions for Latin American growth are the best in decades, citing a weaker dollar, strong commodities, favorable geopolitics, and a wave of pro-business election winners across the region.
- Real rates across Latin America rank among the world's highest, with carry levels reaching 10% in Brazil — attracting fixed-income and FX inflows while leaving room for rate cuts that could further boost equities.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru this month, reflecting the White House's 'Donroe Doctrine' focus on the Western Hemisphere as articulated in the National Security and National Defense Strategies.
- European investors have poured more money into Latin American stocks in 2026 than in any of the past 16 years, according to Morningstar figures cited by the Financial Times.
- Nu Holdings carries a Morgan Stanley overweight rating with a $21 price target versus its current price near $14, and announced expansion into the United States this month.
- Brazil's presidential election first round is set for October 4 with a runoff on October 25; new polling shows Flavio Bolsonaro tied with incumbent Lula da Silva, triggering a sharp rally in the Bovespa.
Why it matters: For investors in Brazil-heavy ETFs like EWZ (up 18% YTD), the binary near-term risk is the October 4 presidential election — Flavio Bolsonaro surging to a tie with Lula already triggered a sharp Bovespa rally, and a Lula victory could undermine the pro-reform wave Citi identifies as central to the bull case.
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