Vistra adds 4.5 GW, sees 5‑6% ERCOT growth, Meta pact
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- Vistra has 4.5 GW of capacity additions either completed or underway, spanning gas and nuclear uprates, coal‑to‑gas conversions, and new gas and renewable projects.
- Vistra’s CEO Jim Burke forecast annual load growth of 5‑6% in ERCOT and 2‑3% in PJM through 2030, noting these rates are below many third‑party and ISO projections.
- Vistra signed a January agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy’s 5.5 GW gas‑plant portfolio, pending regulatory approval later this year.
- Meta entered a 20‑year power‑purchase deal with Vistra for over 2.1 GW from the Beaver Valley plant in Pennsylvania and the Perry and David‑Besse nuclear sites in Ohio, plus Ohio uprates.
- PJM average power prices surged in Q1 2026, with the Western Hub at $97.41/MWh (up 81% YoY) and the AEP Dayton Hub at $70.66/MWh (up from $47.91/MWh).
- Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin‑Smith highlighted Vistra’s role in championing Illinois energy‑storage legislation, though storage discussion was limited on the earnings call.
- Vistra’s Burke said battery costs have not fallen as much as expected and that batteries may not deliver a better internal‑rate‑of‑return than other dispatchable resources.
Why it matters: Vistra locks in a multi‑billion‑dollar revenue stream from Meta while expanding its generation fleet, but its modest load‑growth outlook and muted battery economics signal tighter returns for investors and a slower rollout of storage projects. This could curb the pace of new storage deployments and keep power‑price volatility high for large industrial customers.
