NERC Sees Sharp Shifts in Regional Grid Demand Response
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- NERC assessment shows sharp regional shifts in demand response availability for summer 2026, with SERC Central up 172.3%, ERCOT up 54.9%, SPP up 25.8%, and New England down 13.3% versus 2025
- NERC projects 224 GW (24%) peak demand increase across the North American bulk power system over the next 10 years, driven largely by data centers and large industrial loads
- ERCOT cut its 2026 summer net internal demand forecast by 3.7 GW (4.6%) because more data centers can be curtailed by grid operators during emergencies
- Texas law requires loads of 75 MW or more interconnecting from 2026 onwards to accept mandatory curtailment during firm load shed events
- NERC still flags PJM, MISO, ERCOT, WECC-Northwest, and WECC-Basin as high reliability risks in its updated long-term assessment, citing planned generator retirements outpacing additions
- Potomac Economics president David Patton told FERC that NERC's MISO forecast missed more than 8 GW of potential capacity from behind-the-meter generation and demand response
- ISO New England expects behind-the-meter solar to reduce peak-hour demand by more than 1,700 MW; the region has 8,000+ MW installed and projects up to 6.5 GW by winter 2038, though solar's value drops during evening peaks
Why it matters: Data center curtailment in ERCOT cut 3.7 GW (4.6%) from the summer net demand forecast — a tangible new flexibility lever, though 19 of 23 NERC areas still face rising net demand. PJM and MISO remain high-risk despite emergency coal/oil extensions, and Potomac Economics argues NERC undercounted MISO's behind-the-meter capacity by over 8 GW.
