2026 Open Championship picks: Model that nailed 17 majors reveals bets
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- SportsLine's model has simulated the 2026 Open Championship 10,000 times and projects Wyndham Clark (+3000), despite his U.S. Open win, to struggle at Royal Birkdale due to poor accuracy and limited success in other majors.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +700 favorite to win back-to-back Open Championships, which would make him the first to do so since Tiger Woods in 2005–06, with the model noting his elite strokes gained metrics despite recent opening-round struggles.
- Rory McIlroy (+850) is projected for a strong run at Royal Birkdale, where he finished fourth in 2017, as he seeks a second Open title to tie Harry Vardon’s record of seven major wins by a British golfer.
- Royal Birkdale’s course design — short but bunker-heavy — emphasizes precision over distance, disadvantaging players like Clark who rank outside the top 65 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation.
- Jordan Spieth (+6500) is considered a longshot despite winning The Open at Royal Birkdale in 2017, as the model downplays past performance without current form indicators.
Why it matters: The model’s track record of 17 correct major predictions — including five consecutive Masters — gives its 2026 Open projections significant weight, making its decision to fade recent major winner Clark and highlight course-specific skills a material factor for bettors and analysts. This shifts focus from recent form to course fit and historical precision metrics.
