2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- 2026 Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, with all three 2026 major winners — Masters champ Rory McIlroy, PGA winner Aaron Rai, and U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark — in the field.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +750 co-favorite as the defending Open Championship winner, with McIlroy at +850 and local Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000) next on the odds board.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the Open Championship 10,000 times and has a track record of correctly calling 17 majors, including its fifth straight Masters.
- The model recommends fading Tommy Fleetwood, projecting he'll barely finish inside the top 5 despite his English-favorite odds of +1800; Fleetwood finished 27th at Royal Birkdale the last time it hosted in 2017 and has no major finish better than T11 this year.
- Ludvig Aberg is ranked a top-3 contender on the model's projected leaderboard despite +3000 odds, with the analysis citing his T4 at the PGA Championship and status as one of the tour's best drivers in both distance and accuracy.
- Jordan Spieth won at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and returns at +6000 odds, while Tom Kim arrives as a +6500 longshot fresh off his Scottish Open victory.
Why it matters: The model's 17-major track record gives its contrarian 2026 Open calls — fading local favorite Fleetwood despite +1800 odds and elevating Aberg at 30-1 — real weight for bettors, particularly on a links-style Royal Birkdale layout where driving accuracy matters more than at typical PGA Tour stops.
