2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- The 2026 Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England — the same venue where Jordan Spieth won in 2017 — with Scottie Scheffler defending his title.
- Scottie Scheffler leads the odds board at +750, followed by Rory McIlroy (+850), Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000), and Jon Rahm (+2000) rounding out the top tier.
- SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight) and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
- The model recommends fading Tommy Fleetwood, projecting the third-favorite to "stumble and barely finish inside top 5" — citing his 2024 missed cut, 27th-place finish at Royal Birkdale, and lack of a top-11 finish in any 2026 major.
- Ludvig Åberg surfaces as a top-3 projected contender at +3000 odds, supported by his T4 finish at the PGA Championship and elite driving distance and accuracy on tour.
- The model is also flagging a longshot going off around 35-1, whose identity is gated behind the SportsLine membership paywall.
Why it matters: The model's 17-major track record gives its contrarian calls — fading a popular English favorite at his home Open and elevating a +3000 longshot — a credibility most betting previews can't claim. For bettors, the practical takeaway is concrete: chasing the public's Fleetwood favorite is exactly what the model says to avoid, while Åberg offers substantially better expected value if the model nails its sixth straight Open prediction.
