Model that nailed 17 majors fades Fleetwood at 2026 Open
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- The 2026 Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England — the same venue where Jordan Spieth won in 2017.
- Scottie Scheffler enters as the +700 favorite and defending Open champion, with Rory McIlroy (+850) and English pair Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick (both +1500) next on the odds board.
- The 2026 major winners entering the Open — McIlroy (Masters), Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) — are all in the field.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters (fifth straight), last year's PGA Championship and last year's Open Championship after simulating every PGA Tour event 10,000 times.
- The model projects Tommy Fleetwood to miss the top five despite his +1500 odds, citing his 27th-place finish the last time the Open was at Royal Birkdale and zero 2026 major finishes better than T11.
- Ludvig Åberg (+3300) is flagged as a top-three contender, with the model pointing to his top-25 finish at last year's Open, T4 at this year's PGA Championship, and elite driving distance and accuracy.
- A longshot pick around 50-1 is also being targeted by the model, with full picks locked behind a SportsLine subscription.
Why it matters: The model carries a documented 17-major hit rate, including last year's Open at a different venue and this year's Masters, giving its contrarian Fleetwood fade real weight against the narrative of a home-crowd favorite at Royal Birkdale. It simultaneously elevates +3300 longshot Ludvig Åberg — a player who has never won a major — to top-three status, putting two opposing value plays on the same odds board for bettors to weigh.
