2026 Masters Odds: Model Nails 16 Majors, Calls Aberg Fade
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- Scottie Scheffler enters the 2026 Masters as the +550 favorite with oddsmakers, a two-time Masters champion ranked No. 1 in the world with 20 career PGA Tour victories and T-4 or better finishes in three of six 2026 starts.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the 2026 Masters 10,000 times and has previously nailed 16 majors including the 2025 Masters, the 2025 PGA Championship, and the 2025 Open Championship.
- Ludvig Aberg (+1700) is predicted by the model to finish well outside the top 5 despite two strong Masters appearances (solo second and solo seventh), with the source citing a drop to No. 17 in the world ranking and a unfavorable afternoon-morning tee time stagger.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) is flagged as a value pick by the model, with five top-25 finishes in eight years at Augusta National including a T-3 in 2024, plus four top-10 finishes already in 2026.
- The 2026 Masters field is loaded with major champions — Jon Rahm (+950), Bryson DeChambeau (+1000), Rory McIlroy (+1300), Jordan Spieth (+4500), and Brooks Koepka (+4500) — with first-round tee times beginning 7:40 a.m. ET on Thursday, April 9.
- The model is also targeting two longshots priced higher than +4000, including one around +8000, as potential dark-horse winners who could deliver massive returns on betting sites.
Why it matters: The model's track record of 16 correct majors gives its contrarian calls — fading Aberg and backing Fleetwood — unusual weight for bettors sizing up 78 players with odds ranging from +550 to +100000. With Scheffler as a heavy favorite and a loaded major-champion field behind him, the model's longshot picks could define the biggest payouts of the week's first major if they hit.
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