Micron Won't Be a Buy Until It Hits $525
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- Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) rocketed from under $400 at the end of Q1 2026 to nearly $1,200 by the end of Q2, leaving shares up roughly 250% YTD even after an 18% pullback from the peak.
- Adam Levy of The Motley Fool says he won't consider buying Micron until it trades around $525 — roughly half its current ~$990 price — despite a forward P/E of just over 6 times estimated earnings.
- Levy calculates his $525 target by multiplying an estimated $178 peak EPS in 2028 (rounded down to $175) by 3, the low end of Micron's historical 3-to-8-times peak earnings multiple.
- Memory chips function as a commodity, so Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung face a prisoner's dilemma during high demand: each must build new capacity to protect share, collectively creating the oversupply that slumps prices and profits.
- Analysts currently project Micron's earnings will peak in 2028 with a potentially substantial decline in 2029, and Levy's risk is that the drop exceeds expectations more than the peak itself.
- Levy flags that any update on pricing pace, data-center capex, or new foundry construction timelines from Micron, SK Hynix, or Samsung could materially shift his $525 target in either direction.
Why it matters: Micron has nearly tripled in 2026 on AI-driven memory demand, but the article argues the stock still trades well above its historical cycle-floor valuation. If the 2028 earnings peak holds and 2029 brings even a normal cyclical downturn, investors buying near $990 are paying roughly double the price Levy considers safe — a gap that highlights how much of the AI memory rally already prices in the boom years.
