Global Stocks Rally as US, Iran Agree Two-Week Ceasefire
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- Wall Street climbed to near one-month highs on Wednesday after the U.S.–Iran two-week ceasefire was announced hours before Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil trade.
- Crude prices fell on expectations that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume, with a senior Iranian official telling Reuters the passage could open Thursday or Friday ahead of peace talks if a framework is agreed.
- European indices — the FTSE 100, DAX, Stoxx 600, IBEX 35 and CAC 40 — traded with gains between 3.10% and 5% on the news.
- India's Nifty remained strong following a gap-up start, forming a fourth consecutive bullish candle with a higher high and higher low, reclaiming the 200SMA on the hourly chart after closing above the 50SMA in the prior session.
- India VIX ended at 19.70, down 20.23% from its last close, with market breadth firmly positive — 3,832 of 4,497 BSE stocks advanced on Wednesday.
- Rupak De of LKP Securities warned that any fallout from the U.S.–Iran truce talks could push the Nifty to lower levels, advising vigilance as risks could return if the situation takes an adverse turn, with 24,265 flagged as key resistance and 22,700–22,500 as short-term support.
- Bajaj Broking set an upside target of 24,300–24,700 for the Nifty, contingent on sustaining above the 20-day EMA and Wednesday's bullish gap area.
Why it matters: The two-week ceasefire is a fragile window, not a settled peace: Trump set a near-term deadline, the Strait's reopening hinges on an agreed framework, and a senior Iranian official only said the passage *could* open Thursday or Friday. For Indian investors, the 20% single-day drop in India VIX signals markets are pricing resolution in — making the downside risk De flagged, a failed truce pushing the Nifty toward 22,500 support, the more asymmetric trade.
