Trump's Shadow Looms Over Israel's Election Without Endorsing — SkimNews
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- Trump joked in May he could run for Israeli prime minister and claim 99% approval (no poll supports that figure), while Pew found 69% of Israelis had confidence in him in mid-2025 and the Jewish People Policy Institute found 73% rated him better than an average US president in February 2026.
- On October 13, 2025, the last 20 living hostages returned under a Gaza deal Trump's team brokered, the same day he addressed the Knesset; Netanyahu later called him Israel's "greatest friend ever" and broke precedent by awarding him the Israel Prize.
- Across five September polls, Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats to Likud's 21.2, with Netanyahu's bloc at 54.4 and the Zionist opposition at 51 — neither reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority in the October 27 vote.
- Trump has dodged endorsing Netanyahu three times in a TIME interview and told reporters boarding Marine One only that "We may endorse somebody," while his closest move was a September Truth Social link to a Newsmax poll story that may not even have been posted by him.
- The Israel Democracy Institute found the share of Israelis who believe Trump prioritizes Israel's security fell from 44% in May to 28% in June, and belief among Jewish respondents that Israel can fully rely on him dropped 38 points between March and June.
- Trump pressed Israel to curb operations in Lebanon and pull back from parts of Syria during US negotiations with Tehran, admitted calling Netanyahu "crazy" with an expletive in a heated phone call, and wrote to President Herzog demanding a pardon in Netanyahu's criminal trial — an intervention that would cause uproar from any other foreign leader.
Why it matters: With Netanyahu's bloc averaging 54.4 seats — 6.6 short of the 61-seat majority — and Eisenkot's Yashar virtually tied with Likud, a single Trump endorsement or his continued silence could tip the coalition math in either direction on October 27, giving Washington effective veto power over who governs Israel's next government.
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