Kalshi: 87% Odds Gas Stays Above $4 on Election Day — SkimNews
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- Kalshi gives 87% odds that the AAA national average for gas prices remains above $4 per gallon on Nov. 3 Election Day, but only a 42% chance it stays above $4.25.
- Gas prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon in late May after the start of the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fell to $3.79 in early July, and currently sit at $4.36.
- Diesel prices hit nearly $6.53 per gallon on Sept. 22, now at $6.28, with Kalshi traders placing 68% odds diesel remains above $6 on Election Day.
- Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska — states with large agriculture sectors or diesel-dependent electricity generation — all host competitive U.S. Senate races this November.
- Kalshi traders give the Democratic Party 63% odds of flipping the Senate from Republican control, with elevated gas prices already boosting those chances.
Why it matters: Kalshi simultaneously prices gas above $4 (87%) and a Democratic Senate flip (63%), meaning prediction markets are already treating voter pain at the pump as baked into November's political math — with diesel-heavy states like Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska facing the steepest squeeze in competitive races.
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