The market crisis where 'this too shall pass' doesn't work
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- US‑Iran war is destroying 10‑15% of global crude refining capacity, according to floating figures that cannot be independently verified.
- India imports more than 85% of the crude it consumes, so rising global oil prices directly raise domestic fuel, fertilizer, and cement costs.
- Market signals such as production figures, capacity utilization, and supply forecasts have become unreliable because they are themselves casualties of the war.
- Indian investors face a dual impact: equity portfolio values wobble while the rupee’s purchasing power declines as oil‑price spikes filter through to household budgets.
- Oil infrastructure rebuilding will take years, not quarters, creating a long‑term structural supply shock rather than a temporary sentiment‑driven downturn.
Why it matters: Indian households lose purchasing power as oil‑price spikes raise fuel and fertilizer bills, while investors see equity NAVs wobble and the rupee weaken, compressing real returns.
