Ford Q2 Earnings Due Tuesday; Jefferies Calls It a Trough
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- Ford Motor is set to announce Q2 results after markets close Tuesday, with analysts expecting 35 cents in adjusted EPS and $45.86 billion in automotive revenue, based on LSEG averages.
- Expected results would mark a 2.3% decline in automotive revenue and a 2-cent decline in adjusted EPS versus Q2 2025, when Ford posted $46.94 billion in automotive revenue, $2.14 billion in adjusted EBIT, and a $36 million net loss.
- Novelis restarted production last month at its New York facility that supplies Ford's F-150 line, after two fires had disrupted output since last year.
- Jefferies upgraded Ford and General Motors from hold to buy, with analyst Philippe Houchois calling Q2 a volume trough and writing that post-Novelis production should normalize upward.
- Houchois said healthy US market conditions could prompt management to raise 2026 guidance, which currently targets adjusted EBIT of $8.5–$10.5 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $5–6 billion, and capex of $9.5–$10.5 billion.
- Investors are also monitoring Ford's warranty and commodity costs for any material changes alongside updates to F-Series truck production.
Why it matters: Ford's expected 2.3% revenue decline and 2-cent EPS drop look soft on paper, but Jefferies just upgraded the stock to buy, calling Q2 a volume trough now that Novelis aluminum production has restarted. The report's real test for the $8.5–$10.5 billion 2026 adjusted EBIT target is whether management lifts guidance, as Houchois flagged as possible.
