IEA: Global EV Sales Headed for 23M Record in 2026
SkimNews Take
Early-year sales data, often a proxy for full-year performance, can disproportionately influence market sentiment and investment despite underlying growth trends.
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- The IEA's Global EV Outlook projects 2026 EV sales will reach 23 million, nearly 30% of all new cars sold worldwide, building on 2025's 20 million sales (up 20% YoY) that put 1 in 4 new global car sales electric.
- Global EV sales fell 8% in Q1 2026 after policy changes in China and the US, but roughly 90 countries posted year-over-year growth in March and around 30 set monthly records.
- Chinese automakers supplied 60% of EVs sold worldwide in 2025 and produced nearly 75% of the ~22 million EVs manufactured globally, with Chinese EV exports doubling to more than 2.5 million vehicles.
- Europe's EV sales jumped nearly 30% YoY in Q1 2026, while Asia Pacific (excluding China) surged 80% and Latin America rose 75%.
- Southeast Asia's EV market more than doubled in 2025 to roughly a 20% market share, and global electric truck sales more than doubled, with China leading that segment by a wide margin.
- China accounts for more than 80% of global battery cell production, and the IEA projects the global EV fleet could grow from ~80 million today to as many as 510 million by 2035 without additional policy.
- IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said falling battery prices and potential policy responses to the global energy crisis "are set to provide further momentum in EV markets."
Why it matters: The Q1 2026 8% dip is real but masks a broader story: 90 countries grew in March, Europe surged 30%, and the IEA still projects 23 million sales for the year. China now controls 60% of global EV supply and over 80% of battery cell production, meaning the pace and pricing of the global EV transition is now structurally tied to Chinese manufacturing and policy decisions.
