Polymarket drops Mahomes market at CFTC's request
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- Polymarket self-certified a market Tuesday on whether Mahomes would play in the Chiefs' Week 1 game, then withdrew the filing the following day after the CFTC asked prediction market operators to remove NFL player availability contracts.
- The CFTC also spoke with at least one other prominent prediction market operator about pulling similar markets, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
- Kalshi is still offering trading on Mahomes being the Chiefs' Week 1 starter against the Denver Broncos, plus markets on when injured players will return, as of Friday; Kalshi declined to comment on any CFTC direction.
- The NFL told the CFTC in writing it objects to any markets tied to injuries or officiating, classifying the Mahomes market as injury-related — Mahomes is coming off a season-ending left knee injury.
- Jeff Miller, the NFL's executive VP of public affairs, said the league hopes the CFTC will prohibit such markets and create a pre-screening process, though without a formal relationship "all the NFL can do is ask."
- A federal appeals court in San Francisco ruled in Nevada's favor Friday, denying Kalshi's request to offer sports or political event trades without a gambling license.
- The NFL announced new sportsbook partnerships this week with DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, and is not currently considering a commercial relationship with the prediction market industry.
Why it matters: Kalshi is now the lone prediction market still offering NFL player availability trades — and it just lost a federal appeal to Nevada's gaming control board over whether sports event contracts count as gambling. With the NFL simultaneously announcing new DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics sportsbook partnerships, the prediction market industry's foothold on pro football is narrowing from regulatory, legal, and league-side directions simultaneously.
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