Model fades Josh Allen, boosts McConkey for NFL Week 1 — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and beat human experts in fantasy football for the past several seasons, released its Week 1 rankings for the 2026 NFL season
- Josh Allen has been faded by the model and ranked outside the top 15 Week 1 fantasy QBs, despite leading all players in fantasy points last year and finishing first or second at his position each of the past six seasons
- Allen faces Houston's No. 1 defense in Week 1; the Texans sacked him a career-high eight times in their last meeting, where he threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns
- Allen has never recorded a rushing touchdown in four regular-season starts versus Houston and has 10 turnovers across his last three Week 1 road games
- Ladd McConkey is ranked as a top-10 Week 1 fantasy wideout by the model — ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson — despite slipping from WR12 in 2024 to WR30 last season
- McConkey benefits from Keenan Allen's departure, OC Mike McDaniel's addition, and improved O-line health, and draws an Arizona defense ranked 27th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense last year
- The model is also projecting a little-considered quarterback to crack the top 12 of its Week 1 fantasy QB rankings
Why it matters: Fantasy managers who anchor their Week 1 lineups on consensus picks face a direct risk: the model's contrarian fade of Josh Allen — the consensus No. 1 overall player — could sink lineups that blindly start him, while its top-10 ranking of Ladd McConkey ahead of elite WRs like CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson offers a measurable edge opportunity for owners willing to deviate from the herd.
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