Model predicts 2026 Masters odds, Scheffler top favorite
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- SportsLine's proprietary model simulates each PGA Tour event 10,000 times and has correctly predicted the winners of 16 majors, including four straight Masters.
- Scottie Scheffler is the top favorite for the 2026 Masters at +550 odds, despite not having played since mid‑March due to the birth of his second child.
- Jon Rahm has a 10.5% chance to win and a 41.3% chance to finish top five, according to the model, reflecting his strong historical performance at Augusta.
- Rory McIlroy is projected at +1300 odds; while he hasn't won any of his 14 recent PGA Tour starts, his strokes‑gained metrics rank him fourth overall and first in tee‑to‑green and off‑the‑tee.
- Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young, plus Bryson DeChambeau each have recent strong form (wins, runner‑ups, third places) but have never finished better than fifth at the Masters, yet they appear on the odds board at +2200 (Fitzpatrick/Young) and +1000 (DeChambeau).
- Long‑shot contenders include several players with odds of +4000 or higher, with at least one listed at +8000, indicating the model's identification of potential surprise performers.
- FanDuel odds list the full field, with Scheffler at +550, DeChambeau at +1000, Rahm at +1000, McIlroy at +1300, and a long tail of players up to +100000.
Why it matters: Bettors gain a data‑driven forecast from a model with a 16‑major hit record, while players like Scheffler, who missed recent events due to his child's birth, and McIlroy, who has not won in 14 starts, see odds that reflect both recent performance and absence, changing the betting landscape for the Masters.
