Prediction Markets Keep Whiffing on Elections. Will They Miss on the Midterms? - WSJ — SkimNews
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- Polymarket and Kalshi face a major accuracy test in the midterms after prediction markets repeatedly whiffed on election forecasts.
- CNBC examines suspicious election-contract trading on prediction markets, while the wider coverage contrasts betting odds that look more certain with polls.
Why it matters: Polymarket and Kalshi are the two named platforms whose midterm forecasts face a major accuracy test after earlier election misses. That makes their platforms’ track record—not just headline odds—the direct benchmark for traders weighing election contracts against polls in this cycle.
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