Gold Enters Bear Market; Yardeni Holds $10,000 Target
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- Gold has fallen roughly 21% from its late-January peak of $5,594.82 per ounce, entering bear market territory, with spot prices dropping as much as 2% Tuesday to around $4,335.97 and futures falling to $4,317.80.
- Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research is sticking with a $10,000 gold price target by end of decade, even as he lowered his year-end forecast from $6,000 to $5,000 per ounce — still about 15% above current levels.
- Justin Lin of Global X ETFs maintains a $6,000 year-end base case and called the selloff "a compelling entry point," attributing the move to short-term sensitivity to higher rates, portfolio rebalancing, and complacency around the Iran conflict.
- Standard Chartered projects gold will rebound to $5,375 per ounce over the next three months once deleveraging subsides, with technical support seen around $4,100.
- The U.S. dollar has strengthened about 3% since the start of the war on Feb. 28, driving profit-taking in gold alongside President Trump's five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, which eased geopolitical risk premium.
- Lin emphasized his bullish thesis does not depend on war-related risk premia, but on structural demand from emerging market central banks diversifying reserves and sustained inflows from Asian gold ETF investors — adding there is a "high likelihood" central banks accelerate purchases following the selloff.
Why it matters: The selloff is being driven by technical factors — dollar strength, profit-taking, and easing geopolitical tensions — rather than a breakdown in gold's structural thesis, which means institutional voices are framing this as a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal. Standard Chartered's $4,100 technical support level is now the key floor to watch: if it holds, the 21% decline reinforces the structural bull case; if it breaks, even the most committed bulls like Yardeni face a longer road to their decade-end targets.
