Bitcoin P&L Ratio Hits 43-Month Low; Analysts Eye Bottom
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- Bitcoin's profit and loss ratio fell to a 43-month low during a 50% drawdown from the $126,080 record set in October.
- Bitcoin has climbed more than 7% since hitting a near two-year low of $58,190 on June 25, with market sentiment rising cautiously over the last 10 days.
- Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred stock broke from its $100 par value to below $75, a move many analysts blamed for the late-June Bitcoin selloff.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the STRC incident squeezed out excess leverage and moved the market one step closer to a bottom, predicting a new bull market in the fall.
- Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston noted Bitcoin trades only 16% above the network's realized price — levels historically tied to 41% forward returns at six months and 81% at 12 months.
- Livingston conceded that buying Bitcoin right now 'feels awful' but recommended investors enter now rather than wait for a bottom that 'never announces itself.'
Why it matters: With Strategy's STRC leverage largely cleared and Bitcoin trading just 16% above realized price following a 50% drawdown, the setup mirrors historical entry points that delivered 81% returns over the following year — though Livingston himself concedes buying now 'feels awful,' underscoring how contrarian the buy signal is.
