NATO Allies Walk Tightrope at Turkey Summit With Trump Looming
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Mark Carney enters the NATO summit in a stronger position than any Canadian PM in years after Canada hit the alliance's 2% GDP defense spending target, announcing a multibillion-dollar submarine purchase from Germany's TKMS plus negotiations for Saab GlobalEye early warning planes and HIMARS rocket systems.
- The Trump administration has rolled out three measures signaling reduced commitment to NATO: a Pentagon review of US force posture (per Secretary of War Pete Hegseth), reconsideration of Washington's NATO common funding contributions, and a reduced list of US equipment available to allies in a crisis — including reported deep cuts in strategic bombers, fighter squadrons, destroyers, and submarines.
- European allies have already backfilled previous American contributions, according to NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alex Grynkewich, either matching prior US capabilities or providing alternatives.
- Canada's F-35 review remains an open irritant: Ottawa's ongoing evaluation of whether to buy Lockheed Martin's F-35 or switch to Sweden's Gripen has openly angered the Trump administration.
- Retired general Wayne Eyre, Canada's former top military commander, warned that signals of reduced US involvement in future European conflicts could embolden Russia and cause "future miscalculation," drawing a parallel to the post-WWII exclusion of South Korea before the 1950 North Korean invasion.
- Federal officials indicate no bilateral meeting is expected between Trump and Carney in Ankara, as ongoing trade tensions — including the absence of a CUSMA renewal — and sovereignty disputes remain unresolved.
Why it matters: This summit tests whether NATO holds together as the US simultaneously demands higher allied spending and reduces its own commitments. Carney enters from unusual strength after hitting NATO's 2% target and announcing major submarine and radar purchases — but unresolved F-35 tensions and no planned Trump bilateral keep the irritants alive heading into Ankara.
