Warm homes plan beats new oil drilling on jobs and GDP — SkimNews
Get the Energy newsletter
Daily energy & climate — solar, EVs, oil, the policy fights and tech bets shaping the transition. Free.
- E3G research found the £15bn warm homes plan would slash household energy bills by £1bn a year (concentrated on low incomes), add £1.6bn yearly to the economy, and create about 50,000 jobs spread across thousands of small businesses.
- Rosebank oilfield, by contrast, would generate only about 1,100 direct and indirect jobs concentrated in the North Sea at Equinor and one other company, an overseas investor, per the E3G analysis.
- Rosebank backers Equinor, Shell and Ithaca Energy could see £1.5bn in profits over the field's 25-year lifespan, but related WWF/Uplift research says the UK government faces a potential £258m loss through tax breaks and incentives.
- North Sea tax revenues are projected to fall to about £100m by 2030 as the basin declines, while decommissioning of drilling platforms will likely cost taxpayers £12bn, per the analysis.
- E3G modelling estimates the warm homes plan would boost GDP by 0.08%, versus Rosebank's lifetime average of 0.025%, and any positive impact from Rosebank would be outweighed if taxpayers fund decommissioning.
- Opposition to Rosebank includes ten major unions, scores of Labour MPs, and 600 scientists who wrote to ministers over the summer urging a rethink; energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh said a decision on the Jackdaw gasfield was "imminent" while Rosebank would take longer.
- Adura, the Equinor-Shell joint venture that owns Jackdaw and Rosebank, disputed the analysis, claiming £35.3bn in UK economic value between 2026-2035 — figures the source notes include the companies' wider operations and exclude more than £2.4bn in available tax reliefs.
Why it matters: Ministers weighing budget cuts to the warm homes plan face a stark trade-off: E3G finds it would lift GDP by 0.08% and create 50,000 jobs nationwide, while Rosebank's projected 0.025% GDP bump could be erased by £12bn in decommissioning costs UK taxpayers are likely to cover. With ten unions, 600 scientists and scores of Labour MPs already opposing Rosebank, energy secretary Fahnbulleh's "imminent" Jackdaw decision will test Labour's manifesto pledge against new oil licensing.
Ask SkimNews
