Bills vs. Rams prediction, odds, time: 'Monday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Buffalo Bills (3-1) travel to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET, with Los Angeles installed as a 3.5-point favorite in a matchup billed as a possible Super Bowl preview
- Aaron Donald is set to return from a back injury that sidelined him for the past two games, bolstering a Rams defense ranked second in the NFL at 247.5 yards allowed per game and ninth-fewest points allowed (20.8)
- Josh Allen leads Buffalo's offense with a 66.4% completion rate, 1,039 passing yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions through four games, following a 29-26 Week 4 loss to New England
- Matthew Stafford has matched Allen's six touchdown passes but also thrown six interceptions on 61.1% passing with 1,189 yards, after a 24-20 Week 4 win over Philadelphia
- SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is on a 55-44 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, projects 50 combined points and backs the Under 54.5 at a 63% simulation hit rate
- The Rams have hit the Under in each of their last two home games and are 1-1 as the home team this season, while the Bills are 1-0 on the road in 2026
Why it matters: SportsLine's model — on a 55-44 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024 — backs the Under at a 63% simulation hit rate, giving bettors a data-driven lean against a 54.5-point total in a marquee quarterback matchup. Aaron Donald's return to the NFL's second-ranked defense (247.5 yards allowed) adds structural support to that Under call.
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