Global trade weathers Iran, Ukraine and Trump's tariffs — SkimNews
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- WTO data shows global goods trade rose 4.6% and services trade grew 5.3% last year, with AI-related tech accounting for roughly one-sixth of goods trade but close to half of overall trade growth.
- WTO chief economist Robert Staiger cautioned that strong AI exports may be "masking some of the drop in world trade that might otherwise be occurring," noting that Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and much of Europe barely figured in AI goods flows.
- US imports from China fell about 28% last year, while imports from Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico climbed nearly 10% as firms rerouted supply chains; roughly 72% of global goods still flow under WTO core terms, down from about 80% in 2022.
- EU reliance on Russian pipeline gas dropped from 37% in late 2021 to around 10% post-invasion, replaced by LNG from the US, Norway, Australia and Kazakhstan; Bruegel's Camille Reverdy said she does not expect energy ties with Moscow to revive after the war.
- Iran's February shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $100; Saudi Arabia and the UAE redirected oil via pipeline, the IEA said production rose in Kazakhstan, Brazil, Venezuela and the US, and nations tapped about 300 million barrels from strategic reserves.
- WTO modeling projected further fragmentation could shave global GDP by about 5% by 2050, a full WTO collapse closer to 7%, while reinforced multilateral rules could raise GDP by roughly 3%.
- LSE's Thomas Sampson warned that "trust in the US as a trading partner has collapsed" and could take many years to recover even under a Democratic president, adding that Trump's "law of the jungle" approach disadvantages smaller countries that have "a bigger voice" under the current WTO system.
Why it matters: Small and poor economies stand to lose most from a fragmented or collapsed trading system: WTO modeling puts the GDP hit at 5–7% by 2050. With the EU positioning itself as the lead advocate of a reformed WTO, and 72% of goods still moving under Geneva rules, Brussels is emerging as the institutional anchor if Trump's country-by-country tariff regime persists or is struck down in court.
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