Crypto market positioning is 'defensive and thin' after Fed, Marex analysts say
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- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled the central bank prioritizes fighting inflation over growth, sending crypto markets lower a day after the rate decision as traders unwound pre-Fed bullish bets.
- Marex analysts said "sentiment is washed out" with BTC down 48% from its $126,000 October high and the fear gauge at extreme fear, calling the setup "contrarian fuel if you have the patience" but conceding conviction is thin.
- Over $440 million in crypto futures longs were liquidated across exchanges in 24 hours, with the CoinDesk 20 Index falling more than 1.2% and the DeFi Select Index sliding 5%, though HASH surged 15% and XLM gained nearly 10%.
- BTC futures open interest pulled back to 730,000 BTC from Tuesday's peak of 742,000 BTC, and most of the top-25 tokens excluding TRX and SOL recorded negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta — a sign bears are hitting market orders rather than placing passive limit orders.
- XRP open interest rose to 2.30 billion tokens, its highest since October, but negative perpetual funding rates and CVD point to bearish dominance rather than accumulation.
- RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% in May to a new all-time high, bucking a 3.45% drop in combined exchange volumes to $4.41 trillion — the lowest monthly total since September 2024.
Why it matters: Traders who positioned for a post-Fed relief rally got steamrolled — over $440 million in bullish longs liquidated within 24 hours. With BTC still 48% off its October peak and bearish derivatives signals across most major tokens, crypto desks are braced for more downside, even as RWA perpetuals quietly hit record volume.
