SportsLine model flags Nabers, Cook as 2026 Fantasy busts
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and identified Malik Nabers and James Cook as Fantasy football busts, with the regular season kicking off Wednesday, Sept. 9.
- Malik Nabers is going off boards around pick No. 33 but the model ranks him outside the top-15 receivers — behind DeVonta Smith and Nico Collins — citing his ACL tear, a follow-up spring procedure, and a run-heavy Giants scheme under new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.
- James Cook carries an ADP of roughly No. 12 overall (sixth RB off the board), yet the model ranks him only RB10 behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, pointing to his elevated fumble rate, lack of an elite pass-catching role, and Josh Allen's history of vulturing rushing touchdowns.
- The model also flagged one of the first five receivers drafted in early 2026 leagues as a major bust risk, ranking him barely inside the top 10 at his position.
- Terry McLaurin served as the model's proof of concept: the model predicted his 2025 collapse, and he followed with career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns after a 1,100-yard, 13-TD season the year prior.
- The model's track record includes calling A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, C.J. Stroud's 2024 step back, Derrick Henry in 2019, and Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018.
Why it matters: Early-round Fantasy picks carry the steepest opportunity cost, and the model is explicitly arguing two consensus top-15 assets are overvalued. Nabers going at pick 33 versus the model's outside-top-15 ranking, and Cook at No. 12 overall versus an RB10 ranking, represent direct ADP-versus-model disagreements that could swing competitive leagues if the predictions hold.
Ask SkimNews
