U.S.-Israel War on Iran Leaves Europe Scrambling
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- U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran on 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degrading Iran’s military capabilities, according to the source, which notes the action lacked NATO consultation or adherence to international norms.
- Trump has alternated between escalatory threats and offers of diplomacy, including suggesting a deal with a regime insider, postponing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, and claiming Tehran gave the U.S. an "oil and gas related" gift, though details remain unclear.
- Iran has maintained its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly one fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, and warned of a regional war in response to the U.S.-Israeli campaign, contributing to depressed global shipping and energy market instability.
- EU member states are scrambling to protect stranded nationals and military assets, while facing economic strain from soaring energy prices and potential refugee flows, exacerbated by damage to Qatari gas facilities during the conflict.
- Denmark and Greenland, backed by EU allies, resisted U.S. annexationist rhetoric over Greenland in January 2026, countering with economic threats that unnerved Trump and widened transatlantic tensions ahead of the Iran war.
Why it matters: European economies face immediate energy shocks and security threats due to U.S. military actions they did not endorse, with Italy importing 30% of its LNG from Qatar in 2025—now compromised by war damage—while political instability grows amid fears of renewed refugee flows and far-right backlash.
