Trump Has Few Good Options for Iran 'Massive Attack'
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- Trump declared on July 23rd that America was "all set" for a "massive attack" on Iran, with movements of fighter jets, special forces, and medical equipment to the region signaling a possible return to full-scale war.
- The conflict has seen 13 consecutive nights of American bombing and 12 Iranian attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf since July 6th, effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz once more.
- For the first time in nearly two weeks, America has not launched new strikes against Iran in the past 48 hours, creating a brief and fragile lull.
- The April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding are now "a distant memory" after Iran rejected the framework.
- Trump has few good options to compel Iran to meet its commitments, which include reopening the strait to shipping and committing to talks about downgrading its uranium stockpile.
- The Economist's analysis warns that even renewed assaults on Iran's nuclear programme may not prevent a forever war.
Why it matters: After 13 nights of bombing and 12 Iranian retaliatory strikes failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or bring Iran back to the negotiating table, the US faces a strategic dead end: escalation may not achieve its stated objectives, while a return to diplomacy looks foreclosed. The $37.5bn price tag of the existing campaign and the failure of the April ceasefire and June MoU suggest that neither persistence nor intensity is breaking Iran's position.
