Bitcoin beats gold, stocks after global shocks: study
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Mercado Bitcoin analyzed 60-day return windows after economic and geopolitical shocks and found bitcoin outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 in every period examined, according to a study led by head of research Rony Szuster.
- Following the Trump administration's April 2024 tariff announcement, bitcoin rose 24% over the next 60 days, compared with 8% for gold and 4% for the S&P 500.
- At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, bitcoin climbed 21% in the 60-day window while gold and the S&P 500 trailed.
- During the current U.S.-Iran conflict, bitcoin is the only one of the three assets in positive territory, rising roughly 2.2% from about $65,800 to $67,300, while gold has dropped around 11% and the S&P 500 has lost 4.4% in its steepest monthly decline since 2022.
- Szuster cautioned that judging bitcoin's performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading, comparing it to "watching the first few minutes of a movie," because investors initially sell positions for liquidity, dragging even defensive assets lower.
- Despite its volatility, bitcoin was the best-performing asset of the past decade, according to Szuster.
Why it matters: Investors who liquidate bitcoin positions in the first weeks of a crisis historically miss the strongest 60-day recovery window — and the pattern is already playing out in real time, with bitcoin up roughly 2.2% during the U.S.-Iran conflict while gold has shed about 11% and the S&P 500 posted its steepest monthly drop since 2022.
