Trump claims Iran talks active despite Tehran denial
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- Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S.-Iran talks are ongoing "whether Iran wants to admit it or not" and again asserted full U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz — claiming "nothing gets through to Iran unless we want it to" — even as ship traffic remains a fraction of prewar averages.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei undercut Trump by saying Tehran has no immediate plan for direct negotiations and is currently only engaged in talks with Oman regarding the strait, adding to confusion about the war entering its sixth month.
- Trump has claimed dozens of times over more than five months that a deal is at hand, but no permanent deal has been signed and a temporary June ceasefire has fallen apart; his latest claim followed a weekend reversal canceling a planned massive strike "subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL."
- BMI/Fitch Solutions raised its escalation probability for the U.S.-Iran conflict to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising tensions, while still calling a diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait "achievable this quarter" with future governance as the key issue.
- Iran and Oman are in the "final stages" of a separate arrangement that would manage shipping through the strait via a new route different from those used before the war, per Iranian diplomats cited by the Financial Times.
- The mediation proposal includes reopening the Hormuz Strait, halting Iranian-backed militia attacks on Iraq, Jordan and Gulf states, and a U.S. end to its naval blockade allowing Tehran to export oil — but no deal has been reached, per a regional official cited by the AP.
- Oil prices fell and stocks surged Monday after Trump's reversal, while the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported an explosion in close proximity to a tanker 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman on Sunday, with the vessel and crew safe.
Why it matters: With BMI raising its escalation probability to 35% from 25% and the war now in its sixth month, the gap between Trump's stop-and-go rhetoric and Tehran's public denials is becoming a market-moving variable — oil and equities whipsawed Monday on the latest reversal. The parallel Iran-Oman shipping track, now in "final stages," may matter more than the headline diplomacy because it addresses Strait governance directly while U.S.-Iran talks publicly contradict each other.
