Trump insists Iran talks ongoing despite Tehran denial
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- Trump insisted US-Iran talks are underway in a Truth Social post, calling Iranian leaders 'unbelievably duplicitous' after Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran has no immediate plan for direct negotiations with Washington.
- Iran is currently only engaged in talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Baghaei said at a news conference, undercutting Trump's claim hours earlier that negotiations would restart Monday afternoon.
- Trump asserted the US is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz and that 'nothing gets through to Iran,' even though ship traffic through the waterway remains stuck at a fraction of prewar averages.
- After Trump said he cancelled a massive Iran strike 'subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,' oil prices fell and stocks surged Monday — though no permanent deal has been signed and the June ceasefire has fallen apart during the war now in its sixth month.
- BMI (a Fitch Solutions research unit) raised its probability of a Strait of Hormuz escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic, and economic signs of rising US-Iran tensions and warning miscalculation by either side could trigger renewed escalation.
- A regional mediation proposal calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, halting Iranian-backed militia attacks in Iraq on Gulf states and Jordan, and the US ending its naval blockade to allow Iran to export oil — though no deal has been reached, the Associated Press reported.
- The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre received a report of an explosion near a tanker 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, at the mouth of the strait, on Sunday at 20:37 UTC; the vessel and crew were safe.
Why it matters: Five months into the war with no permanent deal and the June ceasefire already collapsed, the gap between Trump's 'talks underway' claim and Tehran's public denial shows how thin the diplomatic foundation is — BMI raised its escalation probability to 35% from 25%, warning miscalculation by either side could trigger renewed escalation.
