JM Financial Sees 25% Upside in Tilaknagar Industries
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- JM Financial has placed a Buy rating on Tilaknagar Industries (TIL) with a target price implying 25% upside, citing its top-five position in India's IMFL market and strength in whisky (65% of industry) and brandy (20%).
- Tilaknagar Industries acquired Imperial Blue from Pernod Ricard in November 2025 for approximately EUR 413 million (~Rs 4,250 crore), making the brand 1.6 to 1.9 times the size of TIL's legacy business across volume, sales, and EBITDA.
- The combined entity is projected to ship ~35 million cases and generate ~Rs 4,450 crore in sales in FY26E, giving TIL a high single-digit share of the Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) segment.
- TIL has reshaped its portfolio mix, with whisky now contributing 67% of revenue versus less than 10% earlier, and non-South markets rising from 7% to 50% of its geographic footprint.
- Over FY20–25, TIL posted a sales CAGR of 16.6% and volume CAGR of 13.1%; the legacy business is forecast to grow sales at a 13.1% CAGR over FY26–28E with ~11% volume growth.
- Imperial Blue is slated for a revival under TIL with a dedicated branding team, expanded distribution in Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha, and a planned push into the CSD channel, with management guiding high single-digit Q4 FY26 volume growth.
- TIL has also made a strategic investment in Spaceman Spirits to build out its presence in the fast-growing white spirits category.
Why it matters: The Imperial Blue deal nearly doubles TIL's revenue base overnight and vaults it into India's top five spirits players — a market dominated by whisky (65%) and brandy (20%). For investors, the 25% upside target rests on a closed EUR 413M acquisition rather than speculation, but execution is the swing factor: TIL must reverse Imperial Blue's prior underperformance and make a brand 1.6-1.9x its own size actually grow.
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