Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO: The Bull and Bear Case for Bitcoin
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- SpaceX is raising $75 billion through 555 million shares at $135 apiece, per an SEC filing, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion and making it the seventh most valuable U.S. company ahead of Tesla.
- Hyperliquid's pre-IPO perpetual contracts for SpaceX (SPCX) have amassed $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume, ranking eighth by volume on the platform and rivaling Solana perps despite offering only 5x leverage versus Solana's 20x.
- Adam Morgan McCarthy of LO:TECH warned that retail and institutional capital has been migrating out of risk assets to secure SpaceX allocations, arguing the liquidity drain won't end at the opening bell and that ETFs are unlikely to be the main transmission channel since index holders will gain SpaceX via Nasdaq 100 inclusion within days.
- Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO highlighted the deal's unusual retail-friendliness—participation open from as little as $2,000 with up to 30% of shares allocated to retail—saying a first-day pop above 25-30% could spark a wealth-effect rotation into crypto weeks later if the stock holds its valuation.
- Bitcoin is stuck in a $61,000–$64,000 range, up nearly 1% over 24 hours, while on Decrypt parent-owned Myriad, users price a 71% chance the next move sends it to $55,000.
Why it matters: The real signal for crypto isn't Friday's open but the weeks that follow—if SpaceX holds its valuation and Bitcoin ETF outflows stabilize, retail treating the two as part of the same risk-on universe could rotate gains back into BTC; if it doesn't, McCarthy argues this accelerates a broader structural shift toward 24/7 equity and real-world asset exposure at crypto's expense.
