How to keep people cool without making the planet even hotter
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- Cooling (AC and refrigeration) produces ~7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, comparable to global cement production, and global demand is projected to triple by 2050.
- AC electricity demand is projected to grow faster than data center demand between now and 2030, per the IEA, with ACs already consuming 17% of global power.
- HFC refrigerants leaking from ACs are roughly 2,000 times more potent than CO2 as greenhouse gases; AC ownership is climbing 10-15% per year in emerging economies.
- The Montreal Protocol phased out CFCs (which damaged the ozone layer) in favor of HFCs, which are now being replaced by natural refrigerants like propane (GWP ~3), ammonia, and CO2 (GWP 1).
- Vapor compression technology, patented by Willis Carrier in 1902, remains the basic architecture of modern ACs; no ideal replacement refrigerant has been found that avoids all trade-offs like flammability or toxicity.
- End-of-life refrigerant recovery in the US is limited despite a legal ban on venting, meaning significant HFC leaks still escape into the atmosphere from disposal and servicing.
- Existing technology could cut cooling emissions by ~97% without breakthroughs, through reforms to AC testing, manufacturing, building retrofits, and urban design.
Why it matters: With cooling demand tripling by 2050 — driven by 10-15% annual AC ownership growth in emerging economies — the IEA expects AC electricity demand to outpace even data centers through 2030, meaning every percentage point of HFC leakage and fossil-powered cooling directly accelerates the warming that drives more cooling demand.
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