Greens: 50 Labour seats at risk over North Sea drilling
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- Green party research identifies up to 50 Labour MPs — including Andy Burnham ally Louise Haigh — as at risk of losing their seats if the government approves new North Sea drilling or fails to prioritize climate action
- Friends of the Earth constituency polling from October 2024 found more than 50% of voters in every Labour-Green battleground want the government to act faster on climate, with 37 of 50 seats matching or exceeding the 55.5% England-wide average
- Andy Burnham told voters he would be "pragmatic" about oil and gas, framing future drilling as a question of "where does it come from" rather than whether to drill — a position Labour has not distanced itself from
- Decisions on the Jackdaw gasfield and Rosebank oilfield licences are due in the coming weeks, and the Greens say a new wave of Labour defectors will follow if either is approved
- Labour dismissed the threat as "utter fantasy," pointing out that Green projected seat wins at the next election have already fallen from 20 to 7 since Burnham took office
- Luke Tryl of More in Common warned that climate action is "an important glue that unites much of Labour's coalition" and that approving individual licences is manageable only if Labour sticks to its net zero manifesto pledges
Why it matters: Decisions on Jackdaw and Rosebank are due in weeks, and the Greens' 50-seat threat — though their own projection — is backed by polling showing 55.5% of voters want faster climate action. Labour's counter that Green projected wins dropped 20→7 under Burnham doesn't address that underlying voter demand, leaving climate as the unresolved tension in the coalition.
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