Labour Could Lose 50 Seats to Greens Over North Sea Drilling
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- Green party analysis identified up to 50 Labour-held seats requiring the smallest swing to flip, with voters in every one of those constituencies backing faster climate action according to Friends of the Earth polling carried out in October last year.
- Rachel Millward, Green deputy leader, said Labour should 'listen to the polling' if not the science or moral imperative, and warned of a 'new surge in defectors' if the Jackdaw gasfield and Rosebank oilfield are approved.
- Labour dismissed the analysis as 'utter fantasy,' pointing out that since Andy Burnham took office the number of seats the Greens are projected to win has fallen from 20 to seven.
- Andy Burnham said he would be 'pragmatic' about oil and gas, arguing 'the question isn't whether Britain will still be using oil and gas, the question is where does it come from,' with decisions on new drilling due in the coming weeks.
- Thirty-seven of the 50 targeted seats equalled or exceeded the England-wide average of 55.5% favouring faster climate action, with more than two-thirds backing the idea in several constituencies.
- Luke Tryl of More in Common warned that rowing back on climate commitments would deter progressive voters, but said approving individual licences might not trigger a Green surge if Labour sticks to its net zero pledges.
- Labour MPs argue new North Sea drilling will not improve energy security or lower bills but will pour taxpayer money into oil firms that have already posted record profits this year.
Why it matters: With 37 of the 50 target seats exceeding the England-wide average of 55.5% support for faster climate action, the threat concentrates in constituencies where climate sentiment already runs hotter than the national baseline — and the upcoming Jackdaw and Rosebank decisions are the trigger Labour faces within weeks.
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