Global move away from oil could lead to conflict and migration, experts say — SkimNews
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- E3G published a two-year research report, partly built on war-gaming with over 100 public servants, warning that declining global oil demand will trigger conflict, migration and economic upheaval in producer states unless governments act urgently.
- Algeria is forecast to lose 87% of oil revenue and Nigeria more than 60% from 2030; Iraq and Libya already derive 70-90% of government revenue from oil, and 17 countries get over 40% from hydrocarbons.
- The Iran war has hastened oil's decline by constraining supply, sending prices soaring and triggering high inflation and political instability, according to the report.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE are positioned to win a shrinking buyer pool due to cheap production and abundant resources, while Venezuela's collapse — including a 'partial takeover of government by the US' — is held up as a warning of what unmanaged decline looks like.
- China, previously the dominant source of rising oil demand, is now on a downward path driven by rapid EV uptake, leaving India's uncertain trajectory pivotal to whether demand falls fast enough to limit climate damage.
- Angola and Mexico already spend more than a quarter of government revenue servicing public debt, amplifying the fiscal shock projected from 2030.
- Bob Ward of LSE's Grantham Research Institute, who was not involved in the report, warned that high-cost producers like the North Sea will likely be unviable once demand falls sharply.
Why it matters: The E3G report identifies specific, large-magnitude fiscal cliffs — 87% in Algeria, over 60% in Nigeria — hitting governments already unable to service debt, with co-author Beth Walker warning that each country faces a distinct security problem (migration from Algeria, regional spillover from Iraq, African spillover from Nigeria, military competition over Libyan oil infrastructure) that could overwhelm Europe and the UK just as their capacity to contain live conflicts is draining.
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