Serbia’s Vucic defeat does not mean a quick pro-West pivot — SkimNews
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Student List won Sunday’s election with a historic victory that ended 14 years of political dominance by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party; Serbia’s presidential election is due in December.
- Aleksandar Popov said a rapid regional reset is unlikely because incoming authorities must first address Serbia’s captured democratic institutions, judiciary, prosecution service, police and media; he called Croatia the thorniest case, while Montenegro ties remained disrupted and Bosnia and Herzegovina issues were unresolved.
- Milorad Dodik was backed by Belgrade in Bosnia and Herzegovina while Zagreb favored a third entity; Popov hoped an expert-led Serbian government would stabilize the region and revive Serbia’s prospects for joining the European Union.
- Serbia refused EU pressure to sanction Russia under Vucic while allowing ammunition to flow indirectly to Ukraine; Vuk Vuksanovic said it will maintain non-recognition of the Crimea and Donbas annexations, but ammunition deliveries face a question mark.
- Russia would lose influence as pro-Moscow media messaging fades and intelligence cooperation is downgraded, Vuk Vuksanovic predicted, but Serbia would retain ties because it needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West.
- Bosko Jaksic said Serbia would not sever ties with Israel but would re-examine contracts covering ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment for Serbia; the relationship also depends on the outcome of Israel’s elections.
- European Union ties are realistic to strengthen as Serbia reassesses its “sitting on multiple chairs” strategy; Popov said the previous government sabotaged integration, while analysts expect domestic reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignment.
Why it matters: Serbia’s incoming leaders gain scope to repair captured democratic institutions and restart ties with Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the EU remains the stated destination. December’s presidential election and Serbia’s reliance on preferential Russian gas, the Kosovo dispute and Western disillusionment make a sweeping foreign-policy reset unlikely.
Ask SkimNews
