Bernstein: Clarity Act Progress Not Priced In by Crypto — SkimNews
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- Bernstein said any positive surprise on the Clarity Act is "definitely not priced in" ahead of Tuesday's Senate procedural vote, in a Monday client note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani.
- Republican sponsors released a revised draft on Sunday incorporating 126 changes requested by Democrats, including a role for state attorneys general in enforcing ethics restrictions on officials' crypto holdings.
- President Trump agreed to the revised ethics restrictions, which target crypto ventures including his own; Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R., Wyo.) told Democrats they "got what they wanted" and need to "take yes for an answer."
- Beacon Policy Advisors raised its Clarity Act enactment probability to 30%-40% from below 10%, while TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg held firm at 25%, calling the latest draft "not a negotiated deal."
- The revised bill would let the Treasury restrict stablecoin rewards if they trigger substantial community-bank deposit withdrawals—a compromise between banking groups and crypto advocates who both lobbied senators at home.
- CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig has directed staff to draft crypto rules under existing authorities as a fallback if Congress fails to pass the Clarity Act this session.
Why it matters: The 126 Democratic-requested revisions—particularly shifting ethics enforcement from DOJ-only to state attorneys general—could unlock enough votes to clear Tuesday's procedural hurdle. Beacon Policy Advisors nearly quadrupled its enactment odds (from below 10% to 30-40%), suggesting institutional desks are repositioning. Even if the bill stalls, CFTC Chair Selig's parallel rulemaking means federal crypto oversight advances regardless, just without legislative permanence.
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