North Korea doubles down on Its alliance with Russia, for now
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- Zelenskyy revealed in a late July address that Russia plans to bring in an additional 30,000 North Korean troops, with preparations underway since June in Russia's Voronezh region (unconfirmed by other intelligence agencies).
- A North Korean missile unit of roughly 90 personnel has begun deploying to western Russia equipped with up to 120 ballistic missiles and six launchers, per Ukrainian military intelligence; 40 missiles have already been supplied, at least two of which struck Ukraine in a deadly strike.
- North Korea's military assistance has escalated in three phases: artillery shells, then 12,000–16,000 troops for the Kursk incursion, and now ballistic missiles for deep attacks on Ukrainian cities, reflecting the shift from trench warfare to long-range strikes.
- North Korea earned up to $14.4 billion from Russia between August 2023 and end of 2025, per South Korea's Institute for National Security Strategy — dwarfing the $35 million in officially recorded 2023 trade, with most funds routed through unofficial channels evading UN sanctions.
- China remains North Korea's overwhelming economic anchor at over 98% of official foreign trade, while tens of thousands of North Korean workers are filling labor shortages across Russian factories and military-adjacent industries.
- Zelenskyy is publicly pressing South Korea to lift restrictions on direct sales of air defense systems to Ukraine, citing shortages as North Korean-supplied missiles penetrate Ukrainian defenses.
- Kim Jong Un's regime opened a lavish memorial museum in April honoring 2,288 North Korean soldiers killed in Kursk, framing the deployment as a heroic mission even as analysts warn that further troop commitments to the Donbas risk tens of thousands more casualties.
Why it matters: North Korea has become a strategic force multiplier for Russia's war — supplying missiles already used against Ukrainian cities and preparing its largest troop deployment yet — but analysts Andrei Lankov and Fyodor Tertitskiy argue Kim is hedged: China provides 98% of official trade as a stable economic baseline, so a Russian political defeat or stalemate would hurt but likely not topple the regime.
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