Oil Tests $103, S&P Futures Slide 1% as War Enters Month 2
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Oil futures (WTI) tested up to $103, hitting 3-week highs, as the war entered its 2nd month with no de-escalation; S&P futures dropped almost 1%
- Goldman analysts framed the outlook around a single variable — the war's duration — with strategist Shreeti Kapa saying 'the answer to everything depends on' it
- Three unilateral de-escalation attempts (5-day delay, ceasefire proposal, 10-day delay) were met with more supply, eroding the 'Trump Put' or 'TACO' trade
- Israel (IDF) said it was striking Iran targets across Tehran, while Iran claimed its electricity facilities were attacked and reported destroying a US AWACS jet at a Saudi airbase
- The Pentagon has spent weeks preparing ground operations, with initial Marines now arriving in the region, the Washington Post reported
- CTAs sold more global equities approaching max short levels, while SPX Call Skew collapsed and the NDX officially fell 10% from highs
Why it matters: Markets are pivoting from pricing a brief inflation shock to a demand-driven growth scare as the war drags on. CTA positioning near max shorts means selling pressure is abating, but the SPX Call Skew collapse shows traders giving up on a quick rebound — the NDX is already down 10%.
