Nifty's Three Dead Cat Bounces Meet ₹81,262 Crore FII Exit
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- Nifty has corrected over 2,000 points since the Iran-Israel conflict began on February 28, with each of three dead cat bounces met with aggressive selling, according to SBI Securities' Sudeep Shah
- FII outflows of ₹81,262 crore in the ongoing March series have hammered Auto and Banking stocks — the sectors that led the pre-conflict rally — amplifying downside momentum
- Bank Nifty posted its third worst March performance in 20 years, falling nearly 11% and closing below its 100-week EMA for a second straight week, with technicals pointing to a test of 52,200 and then 51,500
- Nifty Auto has corrected 14% after a double-top breakdown at the 28,720–28,820 zone in mid-February 2026, and remains capped below the 25,200–25,300 resistance
- Nifty IT has fallen nearly 28% from its February 3 peak of 40,301 as the Fed's hawkish stance and structural AI disruption fears overshadow any dollar tailwind for exporters like TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech
- India VIX has surged 68% in a month, with the weekly RSI on the Nifty sliding to 30.22 — its lowest since the COVID correction — signaling deeply oversold conditions without a clear reversal trigger
- Brent crude spiked to $114.3 per barrel during the week before cooling slightly, keeping inflation and corporate margin risks firmly on the table for Indian equities
Why it matters: With FIIs dumping ₹81,262 crore in a single monthly series, every sector Shah covers — Bank Nifty down nearly 11% in March, Nifty Auto off 14% from its February top, Nifty IT down 28% from its February 3 peak — is being sold regardless of fundamentals, meaning domestic investors who buy the dip are still fighting a foreign exit that shows no sign of slowing while Brent holds above $113.
