Taiwan says it is tracking 'upward trend' in Chinese naval movements
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- Tsai Ming-yen, director-general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, told parliament the July–September window is peak season for Chinese drills, with an "upward trend" in CCP naval and maritime mobilisation and four Chinese naval formations currently operating in the Western Pacific.
- Taiwan was tracking a record of more than 110 Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels along the First Island Chain as of Friday, according to National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu.
- China and Russia announced joint naval exercises in waters and airspace off Qingdao for this week, with Tsai saying Taiwan held internal briefings on the drills last week after becoming aware of them.
- Tsai framed the China-Russia joint operations as aimed at countering the "denial and defence strategy" built by the U.S. and allies across the First Island Chain, which stretches from Japan to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Borneo.
- Taiwan's security officials warn that the warning time for any Chinese attack on the island is shortening, and that Taipei is comparing past Chinese missions against current ones to identify "new patterns" and tactics.
- In 2023, Taiwan spotted two Russian warships off its east coast — a precursor to the more formal joint operations now being staged further north near Qingdao.
- China's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on Taiwan's assessment of rising naval activity.
Why it matters: A record 110-plus Chinese ships in the First Island Chain — up and down the corridor from Japan to the Philippines — puts Taiwan's stated shrinking attack-warning timeline alongside an explicit China-Russia targeting of US-allied sea-denial strategy, raising the operational tempo in the Western Pacific at the moment Taiwan is self-funding its largest defense build-up in years.
