Basketball Hall of Fame predictions: Projecting HOF fates for six NBA veterans on the bubble
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- Karl-Anthony Towns (86.9% Basketball-Reference probability) was the easiest "in" call after winning the Knicks' first NBA championship in 53 years as the team's second-best player, joining Amar'e Stoudemire (just inducted) as recent big-man precedents.
- Devin Booker carries just a 17.3% Basketball-Reference probability but all three writers still project him in, citing his two Olympic gold medals and rare status as one of 30 players in history to average 24+ points for his career.
- Rudy Gobert (31.8% probability) got a unanimous vote, with Sam Quinn noting he has fewer All-Star nods than Dikembe Mutombo and fewer All-NBA berths than Ben Wallace — but follows both Hall of Famers as a four-time Defensive Player of the Year.
- Al Horford (26.5% probability) gets in, per the writers, on a rare dual-track résumé: an NBA title with the Celtics and back-to-back NCAA championships at Florida, plus 22 years of high-level play after turning 40.
- Donovan Mitchell (58.9% probability) leads the group with seven All-Star selections and three All-NBA teams, and just signed a max extension with Cleveland — giving him runway to push toward double-digit All-Star nods.
- The article's framing thesis: the Basketball Hall of Fame plays "fast and loose" with the word "fame," with most stars eventually enshrined — meaning even sub-30% probability candidates like Booker and Horford have a credible path to Springfield.
Why it matters: For borderline NBA veterans, the Basketball Hall of Fame's willingness to weigh Olympic medals, NCAA titles, and longevity alongside NBA accolades creates an unusually inclusive bar — Al Horford's Florida championships and Devin Booker's two Olympic golds could be the difference between enshrinement and omission. The unanimity across all six 'in' votes suggests individual bubble debates are largely cosmetic; the real question for players like Booker and Gobert is when, not whether, they get the call.
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