Tokayev Proposes Freezing Ukraine Frontlines to Putin
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- Tokayev proposed freezing Ukraine's frontlines at current positions and restarting negotiations under the 'Istanbul Formula 2.0' — referring to failed talks in Turkiye in 2022 and 2025 — contingent on security guarantees from major powers including Russia
- Peskov rejected a freeze outright ('A freeze as such is impossible') and on July 28 labeled Ukrainian strikes on the CPC oil terminal part of Kyiv's 'terrorist activity'
- Sybiha, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, welcomed Tokayev's proposal as 'a realistic, timely, and wise message'
- Tokayev declined to use the word 'war,' assigned no blame for the conflict, and ruled out acting as a mediator — saying Russians are 'fully capable of resolving the issues on the agenda without intermediaries'
- Kazakh oil exports through the CPC pipeline's Novorossiysk terminal (80% of Kazakhstan's exports) were suspended after Ukrainian strikes days before the Omsk meeting; by July 27 output had fallen from 2.16 million to 1 million barrels per day
- In November 2024, Kazakhstan's MFA called Ukrainian attacks on Novorossiysk a violation of international law; Ukraine's MFA replied that Astana had never publicly condemned Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians or energy infrastructure
Why it matters: Tokayev's proposal lands just days after Ukrainian strikes on the Novorossiysk terminal — through which 80% of Kazakh oil flows — cut CPC pipeline output from 2.16 million to 1 million barrels per day, giving Astana a concrete economic stake in pushing for a ceasefire. Russia's outright rejection leaves Kazakhstan's oil revenue hostage to a war its president still refuses to name.
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