Ukraine Has 'First Chance to Win' as Putin Seeks Peace
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Putin declared Russia "ready for peace talks with Ukraine on the basis of the Istanbul agreements" from 2022, though Moscow-based and German researchers told Al Jazeera he is buying time after Russia's summer Donbas offensive stalled
- Ukraine has its "first chance to win the war" since autumn 2022, according to Bremen University researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin, as Russian supply routes fall increasingly under Ukrainian drone control
- Ukrainian drones struck Yekaterinburg in late April — 1,800km from the border — targeting an air defense components plant and shutting the airport at least five times since
- Yekaterinburg residents told Al Jazeera of food shortages, closing shops, and gas stations refusing to fill canisters amid sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and fuel storage sites
- Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergey Markov laid out Moscow's maximalist demands on Telegram: Ukrainian "de-Nazification," demilitarization, NATO neutrality, Donbas withdrawal, and Crimea recognition under "some judicial form"
- A June 11 Kiel Institute report found Russia's economy shows "structural exhaustion," with "the contours of a genuine economic endgame...coming into view"
- Moscow residents fleeing to countryside dachas still encounter Ukrainian drones and toxic "oil rains" that fell on the capital after mid-June refinery strikes
Why it matters: For the first time since autumn 2022, Ukraine holds a realistic path to victory — Putin's peace overture comes after his Donbas offensive stalled and the Kiel Institute documented Russia's "structural exhaustion." If the rear-area collapse continues at the current rate, Mitrokhin warns, the Russian army "will simply have to retreat," making any negotiated settlement hinge on how long Moscow can sustain the status quo.
Ask SkimNews
